Understanding the Updated AI Estimated Delivery Date (AEDD) Model
Overview
We are excited to announce the enhanced version of our AI Estimated Delivery Date (AEDD) model, now integrated with external weather data. This improvement is designed to provide more accurate and reliable delivery predictions, especially when external factors like weather disruptions could impact shipping timelines. By using real-time weather data, our AI model becomes more responsive to challenges, enabling us to update delivery expectations promptly and improve overall shipment monitoring.
Key Changes in the updated AEDD model
Weather integration: The model now pulls in external weather data to enhance delivery estimates, helping to better predict delays due to weather events.
Expanded prediction capabilities: We’ve extended the scope of our predictions to include shipments in exception statuses, offering insights throughout the entire shipment lifecycle.
How does the Updated AEDD model work?
Our upgraded AI Estimated Delivery Date model works by leveraging both standard shipping data and real-time external weather events to refine delivery predictions. Here’s an overview of the process:
1. Shipments in transit
When a carrier picks up a shipment, our system generates an initial Estimated Delivery Date (EDD) based on standard factors such as:
Origin and destination of the shipment
Carrier chosen
Delivery method and route
Package type and size
2. Detecting abnormal external events
Once the shipment is in transit, our AI model continuously monitors external weather databases for any abnormal events that could impact delivery times. These events may include:
Severe storms
Blizzards
Hurricanes
Extreme temperatures
By integrating weather-related data, the model can dynamically adjust delivery predictions based on real-time information.
3. Adjusting the EDD for weather-related delays
When the system detects that an external event like a storm or extreme cold is likely to affect the route or shipping conditions, it updates the EDD to reflect the potential delay. This allows us to give a more accurate estimate of when the shipment will arrive, considering weather disruptions.
4. Offering delay reasons to merchants (Upcoming 2025 API Version)
Once the EDD is updated, the system will also provide delay reasons along with the new estimated date. Merchants will receive these updates via the API, enabling them to proactively inform their customers about potential delays. This transparency helps businesses manage customer expectations more effectively.
Understanding AfterShip EDD model revision reasons
To further clarify why an EDD may change, we’ve introduced an enhanced revise_reason field in our system. This field explains the cause behind any changes to the Estimated Delivery Date, and it can now incorporate external data sources for a more comprehensive explanation.
AfterShip EDD revision reasons
| Reason | Description | Source |
|---|---|---|
| extreme_weather | The EDD was delayed due to extreme weather conditions on the route. | Carrier |
| heavy_rain | The EDD was delayed due to possible heavy rain affecting the route. | AfterShip |
| extreme_cold | The EDD was delayed due to extreme cold weather along the route. | AfterShip |
| strong_winds | The EDD was delayed due to possible strong winds affecting the route. | AfterShip |
| severe_thunderstorms | The EDD was delayed due to potential severe thunderstorms. | AfterShip |
| carrier_processing | The EDD was delayed due to extended processing times by the carrier. | Carrier |
| customs_clearance | The EDD was delayed due to extended customs clearance procedures. | Carrier |
The carrier typically provides delays related to shipping logistics, such as processing and customs clearance, while AfterShip updates are more focused on external factors like weather conditions.
How this benefits merchants and shoppers
This update brings several key advantages for both merchants and shoppers:
More accurate delivery predictions: With weather data integrated into the system, delivery estimates are more precise, reducing unexpected delays caused by unexpected weather events.
Proactive communication: Merchants can receive timely updates on potential delays, which allows them to communicate more effectively with customers and adjust expectations accordingly.
Better shipment monitoring: The new system continuously adapts to external events, offering a more responsive and dynamic view of where shipments are and how long they might take to arrive.
Updated on: 03/04/2025
Thank you!